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  • Chemical API: inflation and a main force

    Publish Time:2011-12-19

     

        Yesterday A share market appeared in the trend of gravity concussion removed, chemical raw materials plate, especially vitamin plate new and into (002001), stocks or the first. Such stocks rising power in a product prices, with the current inflation and the main line. So, chemical raw materials plate can be sustained recent active pioneer? How to grasp it investment opportunities?

        Is not only inflation

        For chemical raw materials in the recent price rise, industry analysts tend to think that is the production cost rising up be caused by, this also get the day medicine shares (600488), fairy Ju pharmaceutical (002332), dexamethasone price increases of evidence that the information, because these products main raw material is 9 turmeric, from a year ago and turmeric price of 300000 yuan/ton rapid rise to recent more than 50 ten thousand yuan/ton.

        But, at present, the products prices actually and two factors has a great relevance. One is the ascension of the environmental cost. With the development of economy, our country to the environmental protection degree of attention paid to ascend, therefore, chemical raw materials exposed to great environmental protection pressure, and the related raw material price is rising dish rise, for example above mentioned turmeric mainly grow in northwest, first in hanzhong city, and these areas is the center of south-to-north water transfer project, the environmental pressure is larger, the production capacity of the 9 turmeric decrease quickly. And environmental protection have long-term sex, it means that these products rise trend is for the long term. This shows, chemical raw materials and the current oil prices pushed by chemical products price rise trend it is different.

        The formation of the monopoly advantage. At present our country's chemical API part of the product has dominated the global absolute monopoly position, some of the smaller products by 12 companies often form monopoly, such as vitamin B2, vitamin B5, vitamin K3, etc. And the big products, such as vitamin VE, vitamin C by three or four entrepreneurs monopoly, including vitamin C formed the northeast pharmaceuticals (000597), north China pharmaceutical (600812), ST huayuan worldbest (600656), LuKang medicine (600789) four monopoly pattern, therefore, is expected to form product price alliance, driving the global chemical raw materials related products prices. And, as the economic ideas for the ascension, our country related enterprise is not willing to provide the planet with cheap products, such as vitamin C began to XianChan raised the price. So to see, chemical raw materials such as PVC is rising kinetic energy chemical products prices it is different, more fluorine chemical products related to rise to have the certain similar place, and fluorine chemical three love rich (600636), juhua shares (600160) have an amazing rise, therefore, this also cheered the funds to the attention of chemical API passion.

    Focus on three kinds of chemical raw materials

        Historical experience shows that once the chemical raw materials prices rise form, then, ZhongDuanXian trend will have two clear direction. One is the product price rose difficult to fall, for example, vitamin VE, even in the 2008 global financial crisis, the price of a product fell by is not large also, and rapid rise in 2009 concussion.

        It is related to the performance of listed company elastic will quickly released. Because of the fierce competition and fully, product prices have been running low, so relevant listed company in historical low gross margin. Once the product prices, and because the ascension of the environmental cost, potential entrants threshold is then ascension, therefore, formed a wider "moat", relevant product price rise trend is expected to continue, which means that these chemical raw materials of products of the listed company of related performance is expected to rapidly promote, 2007 years of wide pharmaceutical (000952), has the rich pharmaceutical (002019) varieties such as is such. But almost a year, Beijing new pharmaceutical (002020), the sea cheung pharmaceutical (002099), the performance of the trend changes varieties fully support this.

        In the operation, advised investors to actively track three kinds of chemical raw materials. One is a globally the monopoly advantage in the variety, new and into, northeast, north China pharmaceutical, zhejiang pharmaceutical medicine (600216), stocks can be positive track; 2 it is products monopoly characteristic is prominent, but the product price is still in the early rising stocks, such as wide Jackie pharmaceuticals, brother science and technology (002562), wing pharmaceutical (002365), the new pharmaceutical stocks, etc; 3 it is cost prices, raw material prices and the strong trend of ascension expected varieties, fairy Ju pharmaceutical, day medicine equity shares is so individual stocks.

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